Survey Finds Only 13% of Companies Are Effective At Forecasting

ConcentricForecasting Survey Finds Only 13% of Companies Are Effective At Forecasting
concentric-the-state-of-forecasting

Survey Finds Only 13% of Companies Are Effective At Forecasting

It’s Monday morning and it’s time to go to the monthly forecasting meeting to see if we met last month’s numbers and adjust the quarterly forecast. Have you ever been in this kind of meeting?

Representatives from sales, marketing, analytics, finance, and operations are all present.  The data is up on the screen.  Last month’s forecast was missed by 30%.  Conversations begin to justify why the number was missed and how to adjust the next month’s number.
 
Business forecasting is the lifeblood of a company. Hundreds of decisions are based on the numbers in these forecasts every day.  While 90 percent of companies agree that forecasting is important to the success of their businesses, only 13 percent believe their businesses are truly effective at forecasting, according to the survey responses we received from executives, managers and analysts across a variety of industries and departments.
 
concentric_forecasting_survey_blog_graph_1
 
In September, we surveyed 71 executives, managers and analysts across management, marketing, sales, analytics, IT and finance departments to understand current forecasting practices, the barriers to effective forecasting and the opportunities to make the biggest impact. Here’s what we learned.
 
The majority of businesses are using rudimentary math to run their business.
In this era of big data, it is surprising to find that more than half of all forecasting is being done using methods created before the advent of the computer.  While some businesses use proprietary models (18%) and outside consultant services (26%) that are largely focused on regression analysis, the majority of companies are basing their future business success on basic math – either using a set percentage compared to last year (31%) or heuristics (25%).   Without factoring in competitive forces, customer segments or other variables outside the four walls of a company, it is not surprising so many companies feel their forecasting methods are ineffective.
 

Which of the following alternatives does your company use for forecasting?

 
concentric_forecasting_survey_blog_graph_2
 
Lack of access to data and tools are top barriers to effective forecasting.
In the last 5 years there has been an explosion of data and tools to manage data, yet these are cited as the two biggest barriers.  What this finding indicates is that organizations are struggling with how to share and give access to data coupled with having the right talent that is trained in using the tools.  These are two organizational challenges that we have been working to resolve with our clients by offering a centralized location to integrate data and providing a simple user interface so that you don’t need a technical background to utilize data to make decisions.
 

Which of these barriers to forecasting are present at your company?

 
concentric_forecasting_survey_blog_graph_3
 
 
Senior level commitment is more important that forecasting accuracy.
We asked respondents to rank what would have the greatest impact on improving their forecasting capability.  Better data and access to tools came in as top drivers of improving capabilities, but interestingly senior level commitment was ranked as more important than proof of forecasting success.  While the method of forecasting used is important, forecasting accuracy is an anomaly since just like the weather there is no such thing as 100% accuracy.  This finding indicates that gaining consensus within an organization among the right parties is actually more important.
 

In order of importance, rank the following for their impact
on your ability to improve your forecasting.

concentric_forecasting_survey_blog_graph_4
 
 
Many believe there is a better way to forecast.
Despite frustrations with current methods, many believe there is a better way to forecast.  We are living in the age of big data where computers have the ability to integrate incredibly large sets of data and learn from the past in order to predict the future.  The survey found that 40 percent believe it is possible to forecast human behavior and the technology exists to do it.  We believe these numbers will continue to shift in the coming years as more people discover the power of market simulation and human behavior forecasting.
 

Access the complete State of Forecasting report here.

 
 
Access-the-Concentric-Forecasting-report
 

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    Australian men’s fours silver winner John van Zyl has been named one of eight men to get silver at the London Olympics, marking the first time a male athlete has won a medal for Australia.

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  • Solomons based troops mark anzac day in 2006, when troops from two Australian Army regiments were given the highest civilian honors for their sacrifices in Afghanistan. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

    A year later, he said, he had been given a “special award” for his achievements in Afghanistan: an Australian Army veteran’s pension.

    Battalion Commander Martin Brown told news.com.au this week that the medal was a “very personal” award because of his service to the Australian Army.

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    It may be an honour for someone who is not often given, but it may also be a reminder of the many men and women who sacrificed their lives in defence of their country, Brown told news.com.au.

    It has been more than 60 years since Australian soldiers helped win the war against the Soviet Union, a military legacy known as Operation Highjump.

    The first wave of soldiers to fight for their country came into being in 1939, when a battalion of the 21st Battalion was sent to Afghanistan to fight the Soviet Army there.

    The battalion eventually achieved victory and became part of the Australian forces that invaded the Soviet Union in September, 1952, after the Soviet Union collapsed.

    While in Afghanistan, the Australian soldiers were treated as heroes and were recognized with the “A” star, the highest of the medals awarded to Australian soldiers for their service in the war.

    The unit did not go back to the Australian army until 2004, when all but one of the surviving soldiers was awarded the Royal Australian Legion Medal.

    One of the more remarkable stories is that of Lieutenant Colonel George Mitchell, who was assigned to the battalion and spent time in one of the small villages in that region that was then dominated by Taliban fighters. He was a key figure in liberating villages from the Taliban forces.

    Mitchell, who died aged 82 in 2012, was buried on Tuesday in Melbourne after setting fire to his own body to mark the centenary of his death.

    He had made the journey there on a single purpose: helping the injured and sick, including his friends and colleagues, who had fallen.

    “It just came down to him being able to get them treatment – and that was it. I never doubted that I’d come back with the same courage,” Brown told news.com.au.

    The Australian military said that every Australian soldier who served in Afghanistan from 1941 to 1991 was entitled to a pension of $4,000, but any soldier killed while serving in the country must not have been awarded an Australian soldier’s pension before July 1, 2008.

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    High court rules on mineral resource rent tax in Victoria

    Updated

    A judge has ruled that the Victorian government’s proposed $20-a-year mineral resource rent tax is not discriminatory against mining companies.

    The Victorian High Court upheld the decision of Attorney-General George Brandis to reject a plea by a law firm that argued the law would affect more than 90 per cent of the small business sector.

    It was originally being challenged by the Australian Coal Association (ACOA).

    The ACOA wanted the law to be challenged in the Supreme Court, but the Victorian Government is moving ahead with the mining tax after consulting the apex court.

    Topics: states-and-territories, government-and-politics, environmental-impact, law-crime-and-justice, mining-industry, australia

    First posted

  • Bali doctor finds signs of choking in qld pair of parents’ infant Read more

    “I can’t understand how there is such a thing as a ‘toxin vaccine’,” he said, adding: “I’m glad the Australian authorities have come back and told us how we have to stop the use of chemical irritants.”

    Gould’s father, who lives outside the community in which he has spent more than 20 years, said the medical team had been very concerned to see the two children receiving chemical irritants in the hospital.

    “But when I asked if they were suffering the symptoms I just got mad. I don’t know who is right or wrong and I am not going to make a judgement, but I have just been treated like a criminal.”

    The parents did not attend the family’s court hearing on Thursday when the decision was announced, which was to confirm the family’s application for a judicial review for negligence.

    The case is being heard in a Brisbane court with lawyers from the Australian Federal Court, the Queensland Bar and the Department of Health.

    Bali hospital defends use of chemical irritant for children Read more

    In an email statement issued by hospital officials, a hospital spokesperson said the chemicals were not used as a measure of protection but were used “to reduce the symptoms of gastro-enteritis”, which included vomiting and diarrhoea.

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    The doctor who carried out the assessment had said the treatment included three different methods, each having slightly different risks, and all had failed.

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    Gould says the parents’ case raises questions about whether chemicals used in a controlled setting like hospital ward care are safe for children.

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    In response, the hospital has issued a statement saying it was “disappointed” the judge had ruled against the doctor
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    [b]It would be incredible if he showed up on your album![/b]

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    with friends that orders something weird the menu, or even nothing at
    all off. If your daily diet comes at the
    cost of your happiness, if you ask me it’s just flat out not worthwhile.
    xoxo Anyway just wanted to say thanks for your website.
    Materials like this allow me to stay on track and helps to keep me.
    I am hoping that you continue to grow, along with can find it!
    Thanks and good luck . This is all GREAT.
    Been doing my best to attempt to do quality study, so stuff like this helps.
    Anyone else think that the biggest problem people have with weight
    loss comes from them not putting at job? You have
    to be inclined to do a little research first, although you want to begin losing
    weight ASAP like I do. I am sorry to say you are just going to have problems, if you do not do your
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